TruthBook Religious News Blog

February 19, 2009 5:49PM

New analysis suggests that evangelicals remained unmoved in their support for Republicans, while a few other religious groups shifted.

Tobin Grant

Within minutes of the polls closing in November, journalists were reporting results from exit polls including analysis of how evangelicals and other religious groups voted. One of the findings from these polls was that evangelicals (that is, “born again” voters) voted three to one for McCain, with evangelicals in the South more likely to do so than evangelicals in the Midwest.

But exit polls are short, with too few questions on religion. For a clearer picture of religion’s role in the election, researchers use surveys that take more time to analyze. One of the best is The National Survey of Religion and Politics conducted by John Green (University of Akron and the Pew Forum).

In the March issue of First Things, Green presents a summary of how religious groups voted in November. The fact that this “summary” runs over 4,000 words speaks to the complexities and nuances of religion in American politics. Green uses a combination of information on religious affiliation, beliefs, behavior, race, and ethnicity to group Americans into no less than 15 different religious groups. He reports how each group voted in 2008 and compares this vote with results from 2004. The result is a clearer picture of how the more things change the more they stay the same in American religion and politics.

There were three groups that seem to have made sizeable shifts in their votes.

1. Black Protestants. In 2004, support for Kerry among those attending a Black Protestant church dropped to 83 percent. However, with Obama as candidate, this group returned to its high level of support for the Democrats. As Green notes, 95 percent of Black Protestants voted for Obama, meaning that one in five of Obama’s voters were Black Protestants.

2. Traditionalist Catholics. As with Mainline Protestants and Evangelical Protestants, Green differentiates Catholics by their support for traditional beliefs and practices. Traditionalist Catholics are those who hold more orthodox beliefs and are more active in their faith. In 2004, only one fifth of this group voted for Kerry. In 2008, support for the Democrat nearly doubled, with 39 percent supporting Obama. This is one group to watch over the next four years.

3. Ethnic Protestants. Green analyzes “Ethnic Protestants” as a separate religious group. This group is primarily Latino but it includes other non-white, non-Anglo Protestants. This group tends to hold conservative positions on social issues. They gave Bush their vote in 2004, with only 25 percent voting for Kerry. In 2008, Obama received just over half of this group’s vote. This is a group that has not solidified its voting. As of now, it is trending Democratic, but its votes are likely up for grabs for next few election cycles.

Tobin Grant is an associate professor of political science at Southern Illinois University — Carbondale.

Labels: 2008 election, evangelicals, religion, The Fifth National Survey of Religion and Politics: A Baseline for the 2008 Presidential Election, Tobin Grant

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Monday, November 03, 2008

Morality or economy?

BY JOE RODRIGUEZ
The Wichita Eagle

ECONOMIC ISSUES ARE TRUMPING VALUES ISSUES FOR SOME RELIGIOUS VOTERS, A NEW POLL SHOWS

A recent poll showed that economic issues were the top concern among more people of faith this year than they were four years ago.

The poll, "The Fifth National Survey of Religion and Politics: A Baseline for the 2008 Presidential Election," was conducted in June and August and led by John C. Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron, in Ohio.

The survey of more than 4,000 Americans found that 51.3 percent -- of various religious backgrounds -- said economic issues were their top priority. The 2004 survey, also led by Green, found that just more than 27 percent considered economic issues their top priority.

By comparison, social issues -- such as abortion and same-sex marriage -- were cited as the top priority among 11 percent of those surveyed, compared with 19 percent four years ago.

In addition to the 11 percent who said social issues were their top priority, more than 27 percent said such issues were "very important." In 2004, those numbers were 19 percent (top priority) and 28 percent (very important).

Labels: economics, Joe Rodriguez, morality, social issues, The Fifth National Survey of Religion and Politics: A Baseline for the 2008 Presidential Election